Undocumented Immigration By Congressional District

by Rob Paral for The Immigration Policy Center

Introduction:

Over the past year, Congress has debated major changes to immigration law as a response to undocumented immigration. While this debate has relied heavily upon estimates of undocumented immigration at the national level, less attention has been paid to the number of undocumented immigrants in local areas—and almost no analyses have considered the size and scope of undocumented immigration in each of the 435 congressional districts. Yet the size of the undocumented population in each congressional district is an important consideration in gauging whether or not a representative’s stance on a particular immigration policy or initiative has a basis in the actual, local impact of undocumented immigration.

An earlier IPC analysis showed that the number of undocumented immigrants was surprisingly low in the districts of key representatives leading the effort to restrict immigration. For example, there are relatively few undocumented immigrants in the districts of either Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-6th/CO), chair of the Congressional Immigration Reform Caucus, or Rep. F. James Sensenbrenner (R-5th/WI), chair of the House Judiciary Committee. Both were champions of H.R. 4437, the Border Protection, Anti-Terrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act—an enforcement-only immigration bill passed by the House of Representatives on December 16, 2005.^[1]

However, the extent of undocumented immigration in congressional districts is important for reasons beyond the interpretation of a representative’s voting record. Undocumented immigrants are counted by the census, the population estimates of which are used to apportion congressional districts, to re-draw the districts of state representatives and senators, and to delineate districts for a wide variety of municipal services (schools, police, fire protection, etc.). In addition, undocumented immigrants have a significant impact on local economies if they are present in sizable numbers. On the one hand, they contribute by paying taxes, purchasing consumer items, and—increasingly—becoming homebuyers. On the other hand, they utilize health care and social services that can strain local and state budgets. Moreover, many undocumented immigrants live in households that include native-born children, meaning that the welfare of millions of U.S. citizens depends in large part on the welfare of their undocumented parents.

Findings

Recently released data from the 2005 American Community Survey permit us to update our previous estimates of the undocumented population by congressional district and to compare these estimates with those from the 2000 census. Although the undocumented population of the United States as a whole increased substantially over these five years, trends in undocumented immigration varied widely from district to district:

• In 2005, undocumented immigrants accounted for about 10 percent or more of the total population in only 27 (or roughly 6 percent) of the 435 congressional districts.
• Conversely, undocumented immigrants comprised about 5 percent or less of the population in more than half (or 232) of all congressional districts in 2005.
• Between 2000 and 2005, the undocumented population of 107 districts doubled, although most of these districts had relatively few undocumented immigrants to begin with.
• More strikingly, 39 districts experienced either a decline or no change in their undocumented population between 2000 and 2005. Many of these districts had been major destinations for new arrivals in the past, but are becoming less so as immigrants move to other parts of the country.

Undocumented Immigrants are Settling in New Areas

Increasingly, undocumented immigrants to the United States are choosing to settle in new areas like North Carolina, Nebraska, and Nevada rather than traditional immigrant destination states such as New York, Florida, and California. For example, California received almost 54 percent of all non-citizen Mexican immigrants who arrived in the country in 1990-2000, but during the subsequent 2000-2005 period received only 18 percent of the national total.

The district of Rep. Benjamin Cardin (D-3rd/MD) is an example of a new immigrant settlement area with a growing number of undocumented migrants. Representative Cardin’s district includes parts of Baltimore as well as suburban areas north and south of the city. The latest census data suggests that his district has picked up approximately 18,000 undocumented immigrants since 2000.

The settlement patterns of undocumented immigrants are changing along with those of legal immigrants. A case in point is the district of Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-47th/CA), located in Orange County, which experienced a decline of about 18,000 undocumented immigrants between 2000 and 2005. At the same time, the district’s foreign-born population as a whole fell by nearly 15,000, and the Mexican foreign-born population in particular fell by more than 10,000.

These shifting settlement patterns among immigrants raise the question of how elected officials will respond to growing numbers of undocumented constituents in their districts. These immigrants are likely to remain in the United States for long periods of time and warrant attention from local officials charged with promoting economic and social development. Deciding how to interact with and, indeed, represent undocumented constituents and their families will be an increasingly important task for many congressional representatives.