Antis point to polls showing more Americans support the Arizona bill than oppose it. But other polls - including new ones from ImmigrationWorks USA and Immigration Voice, show these same voters also support - by wide margins - comprehensive immigration reform proposals that contain legalization programs. Is this really a contradictory result? Maybe not. Americans want ACTION on immigration reform rather than maintaining the status quo. Action can mean an SB1070 or something on a broader scale - even if it is called "amnesty."
Here are slides outlining the ImmigrationWorks poll. Keep an eye on polling of Republican voters who surprisingly are out of step with their representatives in Congress who are really misreading the situation.
Keep an eye on the military appropriations bill Congress is working on for a potential immigration piece. The AP reports that Republicans want some serious money and personnel commitments for the southern border. And my own sources are telling me that some Democrats are looking at trying to get the DREAM Act in that same piece of legislation. Remember, DREAM allows for some who join the military to pursue permanent residency so it would be a germane part of the bill.
A down payment on comprehensive immigration reform? Or the end of that effort and the return to piecemeal legislating? And if so, is that bad? What do you think?
There's no doubt that the new Arizona immigration law is popular
nationally, but that still doesn't mean the issue's going to work to
the GOP's advantage this fall.
When we polled Colorado in
early March Michael Bennet and Jane Norton were tied. Last week we
found Bennet with a 3 point lead. One of the biggest reasons for that
shift? Bennet went from leading Norton by 12 points with Hispanic
voters to a 21 point advantage. That large shift in a Democratic
direction among Hispanics mirrors what we saw in our Arizona Senate
polling last month- Rodney Glassman went from trailing John McCain by 17 points with them in September to now holding a 17 point lead.
Hispanics
in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the
Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then
becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican
this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't
been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet- Bennet
and Glassman are both doing better with white voters than they were
before as well, although not to the same degree that they've improved
with Hispanics.
A majority of Americans may support the bill but
it could still end up working to Democrats' benefit this fall if most
of the voters who care enough about it for it be a determining factor
in how they vote- or whether they vote- go in their direction.
I've been hearing reports behind the scenes over the last few days about a growing rift in the pro-immigration movement between whether it is better to hold out for comprehensive immigration reform or switch to a strategy of pursuing significant lesser immigration measures like the DREAM Act or AgJobs. As I've indicated before, strong arguments can be made for either. Now some of those arguments are making there way in to the media such as this nugget from today's HuffPost Hill email alert:
TOMORROW'S
PAPERS TODAY - The Hill's Alexander Bolton
on how immigration
reform is straining Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin's already complicated
relationship: "Schumer is spearheading the effort to pass
comprehensive immigration reform this year. But Durbin has long championed a
scaled-down version of reform, called the Dream Act, that activists believe has
a better chance of passing. Durbin has had to tread lightly to avoid the
appearance that he is endangering Schumer's effort to pass comprehensive
reform."
About The Author
Greg Siskind is a partner in Siskind Susser's Memphis, Tennessee, office. After graduating magna cum laude from Vanderbilt University, he received his Juris Doctorate from the University of Chicago. Mr. Siskind is a member of AILA, a board member of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, and a member of the ABA, where he serves on the LPM Publishing Board as Marketing Vice Chairman. He is the author of several books, including the J Visa Guidebook and The Lawyer's Guide to Marketing on the Internet. Mr. Siskind practices all areas of immigration law, specializing in immigration matters of the health care and technology industries. He can be reached by email at gsiskind@visalaw.com.
The opinions expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the opinion of ILW.COM.