Not surprising, but surprising that Luis would admit it. And if this is the case (and I think it is), then the question is whether we wait until 2011 or later to push again or finally decide it's time to look at other strategies like piecemeal reform (pass DREAM, AgJobs, legal immigration reform now and deal with legalization later) or look at administrative actions like TPS or parole and a moratorium on deportations for people who would otherwise meet the requirements of a proposed legalization program.
Its half time during the big game with Ghana and we're behind a goal, but I know we're going to pull it out. And the fact that we've gone this far is due in no small measure to our incredibly diverse team with players from all over the world that have become Americans. Its easier to talk about which players are NOT immigrants or the sons of immigrants. The National Immigration Forum has the run down here.
One of the options the President has had on the table - one every President has - is using an administrative option to provide temporary legal status and work authorization to those in the country illegally. Rumors have been spreading within the community of antis around the country and they've gotten a handful of hardcore anti-immigrant members of Congress to send a letter warning the President to drop the idea (if indeed it was really being considered.
How could President Obama do what the paralyzed Congress can't? Two options come to mind. He could look at a blanket policy using the same Temporary Protected Status provision in the Immigration and Nationality Act that allowed Haitians to remain in the US after the earthquake.
The INA reads as follows:
244(b) Designations.--
244(b)(1) In general.--The Attorney General, after consultation with appropriate agencies of the Government, may designate any foreign state (or any part of such foreign state) under this subsection only if--
244(b)(1)(A) the Attorney General finds that there is an ongoing armed conflict within the state and, due to such conflict, requiring the return of aliens who are nationals of that state to that state (or to the part of the state) would pose a serious threat to their personal safety;
244(b)(1)(B) the Attorney General finds that--
244(b)(1)(B)(i) there has been an earthquake, flood, drought, epidemic, or other environmental disaster in the state resulting in a substantial, but temporary, disruption of living conditions in the area affected,
244(b)(1)(B)(ii) the foreign state is unable, temporarily, to handle adequately the return to the state of aliens who are nationals of the state, and 244(b)(1)(B)(iii) the foreign state officially has requested designation under this subparagraph; or
244(b)(1)(C) the Attorney General finds that there exist extraordinary and temporary conditions in the foreign state that prevent aliens who are nationals of the state from returning to the state in safety, unless the Attorney General finds that permitting the aliens to remain temporarily in the United States is contrary to the national interest of the United States.
Normally, the provision is used when there's a civil war, hurricane, earthquake, etc. But the little used 244(b)(1)(C) gives the President a lot more flexibility. He could say, for example, that the countries that depend on remittances from illegally present immigrants would suffer economic disaster that would befall such countries should we deport all of the millions of people here illegally meets the test. He could use the horrendous drug war going on in Mexico as the reason. I'm sure there are a variety of other reasons that could meet the test.
TPS is an interesting possibility because it would not offer any permanent immigration rights, but would remove the threat of deportation while Congress then can focus on passing a tough border security bill and also deal with the longer term legal immigration reforms that are needed.
Deferring a decision on the long term status of illegally present immigrants via TPS also could help change the politics. The immigrants would no longer be illegally present and this might help people get past the wall blocking progress on the issue. Congress could, in fact, keep TPS in place until most of the people currently in line for green cards are processed and only then look to coming up with a permanent fix for this population.
The members of Congress who protested to the President apparently think humanitarian parole is the option being considered. They argue that this option can only be used in a case by case manner. Of course, the President can order USCIS to liberally consider parole status in a very broad variety of circumstances and this could lead to something like the old 245(i) program that existed in years past.
I'm actually writing this blog post on an airplane with Internet access. That's a first for me and those of you who know how much I love technology can probably envision the smile on my face.
Back to the post, however. This is really remarkable. Fox News has championed the most hostile antis out there. So when New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Fox owner Rupert Murdoch showed up on the popular Fox and Friends yesterday to explain why we need comprehensive immigration reform, that had to make major waves at the network.
The appearance was noted in a major segment on Fox competitor MSNBC's Countdown with Keith Olbermann who had a lot of fun with the turn of events. I'm not holding my breath that the network coverage will change much, but I also didn't think we would have gotten rid of Lou Dobbs as fast as we did either.
Our poll of the Texas Governor's race this week is another data point
indicating possible backlash for Republican candidates this fall in the
wake of the Arizona immigration law.
When we polled the race in
Februrary Rick Perry led Bill White by 6 points. The race is tied now,
and the movement since the previous poll has come completely with
Hispanic voters. With white voters Perry led 54-35 then and leads 55-35
now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and leads 70-7 now. But
with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 in February to now
trailing 55-21. And it's not that the sample of Hispanic voters we
interviewed for this poll was somehow fundamentally different from the
previous one- Barack Obama's approval with them on this poll was 49%
compared to 47% on the previous Texas poll.
Hispanics moving
toward Democratic candidates since the Arizona immigration bill was
signed is becoming a trend in our polling of western states. Previous
races where we polled before and after the signing of the immigration
bill showed Rodney Glassman going from a 17 point deficit against John
McCain with Hispanics to a 17 point lead, Michael Bennet going from a 12
point lead to a 21 point lead against Jane Norton with them, and Terry
Goddard going from a 20 point lead to a 46 point lead with them.
There's
no doubt the immigration bill is popular nationally. But if it causes
Hispanics to change their voting behavior without a parallel shift among
whites then it's going to end up playing to Democratic advantage this
fall. It's much more important to look at how Hispanic voters in states
with large Hispanic populations are reacting than it is to look at the
national numbers, at least as it pertains to this fall's election.
